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Analysis on Forecast Effect of Daily Maximum Power Load Variation in Shijiazhuang Based on Three Models
WU Huiqin, YANG Linhan, ZHAGN Zhongjie
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 709-715.  
Abstract263)      PDF(pc) (1467KB)(1292)       Save
Based on daily maximum power load in Shijiazhuang from 2017 to 2019 and meteorological data during the same period, the variation characteristic of daily maximum power load was analyzed. The correlation between variation of daily maximum power load and meteorological factors, air quality index (AQI) was also analyzed. The forecasting models of daily maximum power load variation in winter and summer were established by using stepwise regression, multiple linear regression and generalized additive model (GAM), the data of corresponding time in 2019 were taken as the independent test samples of forecasting effect. The results show that the daily maximum power load in Shijiazhuang had an obvious increasing trend from 2017 to 2019, and the correlation between variation of power load and factors had obvious seasonality. The factors which had a negative correlation with daily maximum power load variation in winter were positively correlated with daily maximum power load variation in summer, and vice versa. Among the three models, GAM model had the best prediction effect, and its forecast effect in summer was better than that in winter. In business application, GAM model with AQI could be selected in summer, and GAM model without AQI should be selected in winter.

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Research on Risk Forecast of Transmission Lines Icing in Northern Hebei Province
WANG Xin, LU Yi, ZHANG Xu, YANG Linhan, WU Huiqin
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2020, 38 (1): 164-168.  
Abstract256)      PDF(pc) (441KB)(1467)       Save
Based on the data of transmission line icing accidents in Northern Hebei  Province and power microweather station observations from 2012 to 2015 provided by the power company, the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of transmission line icing accidents were analyzed. Meanwhile, the daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed and daily precipitation were selected as forecast factors. The risk prediction model for transmission line icing was built and verified. The results show that transmission line icing accidents mostly occurred in mountainous areas in Northern Hebei Province and mainly from November to May of the following year. Different types of underlying surfaces corresponded to different types of ice accidents. More than 56% of icing flashover occurred in plain and the plateau on bam, and dancing mainly distributed in mountains and valleys. Most accidents occurred when minimum daily temperature ranged from -8 to 0 ℃, the maximum daily temperature ranged from -4 to 4 ℃, the average daily relative humidity was above 80%, and the average daily wind speed ranged from 1 to 3 m·s-1. The test results of prediction model of transmission line icing accidents showed that when transmission line icing accidents happened, the prediction results were all above level 2, and there was no false negatives, but there was a small false alarm rate.


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Galloping Characteristics of Transmission Line in Northern Hebei Province and Meteorological Elements Analysis
WANG Jie, FAN Junhong, ZHAO Zengbao, ZHANG Yanheng, YANG Linhan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2019, 37 (6): 1021-1027.  
Abstract274)      PDF(pc) (1723KB)(1389)       Save
Based on conventional observation data during power transmission line galloping processes which happened 38 times from 2007 to 2017 in northern Hebei, the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of transmission line galloping and the relative meteorological factors were analyzed, and meteorological indices for transmission line galloping were obtained. The results are as follows: (1) The transmission line galloping in the northwest mountainous regions was more than that of the eastern coastal, which showed a slightly decreasing trend, but it was not significant. The high incidence period was from April to May, while in the eastern coastal it showed an increasing trend year by year, and passed the significance test of 0.05. The high incidence period was November. Over the past 11 years, the Gutai I line in Guyuan, Fengning and Chicheng had the most galloping accidents than others. (2) Before and after transmission line galloping, the meteorological factors needn’t have high-frequency changes. However, it was necessary to reach a certain threshold range at the same time before galloping occurrence, and the meteorological factors increased, decreased or remained unchanged in the threshold range. (3) A warmer layer or inversion layer existed near 700-850 hPa when the transmission line galloping occurred, the difference between temperature and dew point temperature below warmer layer or inversion layer was less than 2 ℃, and the water vapor in the air reached near saturation and saturation, the relative humidity was relatively small in the high-level. (4) Transmission line galloping occurred under the weather conditions of freezing rain, sleet, sleet and snow. (5) Based on the historical surface meteorological observation data and sounding data in northern Hebei, the prediction model of galloping weather was tested. It was found that the galloping situation of transmission line in northern Hebei was predicted well, which had certain guidance for the meteorological service of power grid.
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Relationship Between Power Load Characteristics and Temperature in North Hebei
ZHANG Yanheng, YANG Linhan, WU Huiqin, ZHANG Jinman
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-05-0881
Variation of Sunshine Duration in the Low Latitude Plateau in Recent 50 Years
MA Tao, FAN Feng, ZHANG Wancheng, YANG Linhan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-05-0790